| Title: | Developing chronic disease models to inform health policy and guide treatment decisions |
| Lead Institution: | University of Oxford |
| Principal investigator: | Professor Borislava Mihaylova |
Application 56757
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About
The programme of work will draw on detailed information from the UK Biobank study (around 500,000 people in the UK providing detailed data for research with more than 10 years of follow-up). The database includes rich descriptive information about participants at entry into the study as well as information on evolving diseases over time. We will use the UK Biobank database to develop reliable computer models that will predict future disease events (e.g. heart attacks, strokes and deaths) and effects of interventions in reducing these events in diseases such as heart disease, diabetes and kidney disease and in different types of people. The UK Biobank data will also be used to assess the healthcare costs required, thereby allowing the effects of disease events and interventions on these costs to be studied in the computer model. These models will be used to calculate how long people can expect to live, their quality of life, and the costs of healthcare they would require, and how these outcomes change depending on treatments used. This is a long-term programme of work. We plan to report first results about the long-term cardiovascular disease risks and costs and the effects of statins in different groups of people in the coming two to three years. Given the importance of this work, we will present and discuss our methods and emerging results with doctors, policy makers and the general public throughout the programme.3 Publications
| Pub ID | Title | Author(s) | Year | Journal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10066 | Lifetime effects and cost-effectiveness of standard and higher-intensity statin therapy across population categories in the UK: a microsimulation modelling study | Borislava Mihaylova (+13) | 2024 | The Lancet Regional Health - Europe |
| 9466 | Long-term cardiovascular risks and statin treatment impact on socioeconomic inequalities: microsimulation model | Runguo Wu (+203) | 2023 | British Journal of General Practice |
| 9167 | Strong and graded associations between level of asthma severity and all-cause hospital care use and costs in the UK | Anya Jacobs (+4) | 2023 | BMJ Open Respiratory Research |
Enabling scientific discoveries that improve human health