| Title: | Development and validation of an epidemiological risk score for early detection of pancreatic cancer in high-risk individuals within the IMAGene project |
| Journal: | International Journal of Epidemiology |
| Published: | 17 Apr 2026 |
| Pubmed: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42160519/ |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag064 |
Publication 20215
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Early detection is critical in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC)-one of the most lethal malignancies due to its typically late diagnosis.</p>
METHODS: In this study, we aimed to validate an epidemiological risk score (ERS) designed to identify individuals at increased risk of developing PDAC prior to the use of imaging or other diagnostic procedures. The ERS was constructed through a meta-analysis of 24 well-established epidemiological risk factors. We applied this score to a prospective cohort of 178 high-risk individuals with a family history of PDAC within the IMAGene project (ClinicalTrials.gov registration code: NCT06334458). To evaluate the predictive value of the ERS, all participants underwent whole-body or abdominal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and the findings were classified according to the Oncologically Relevant Findings Reporting and Data System criteria to identify and categorize lesions based on their malignant potential. External validation was conducted by using a subset of the UK Biobank (UKB) cohort (≈300 000 individuals), among whom 1648 were diagnosed with PDAC.</p>
RESULTS: Higher ERS values were associated with the presence of potentially malignant lesions on MRI. Both pancreatic and extra-pancreatic malignant lesions were more frequent among individuals with higher ERS scores (P = .01 and P = .02 respectively) compared with controls. External validation in PDAC cases within the UKB cohort confirmed these associations.</p>
CONCLUSION: Our findings support the integration of the ERS as a feasible, low-cost tool for PDAC risk stratification, with the potential to facilitate earlier detection and improve clinical outcomes.</p>
14 Keywords
- Adult
- Aged
- Carcinoma, Pancreatic Ductal
- Early Detection of Cancer
- Female
- Humans
- Magnetic Resonance Imaging
- Male
- Middle Aged
- Pancreatic Neoplasms
- Prospective Studies
- Risk Assessment
- Risk Factors
- United Kingdom
28 Authors
- Lois Riobó-Mayo
- Lluis Salvador
- Alex Teulé
- Elisabet Guinó
- Laura Layos
- Serena Oliveri
- Clizia Cincidda
- Giulia Ongaro
- Chiara A Accornero
- Chiara Alessandra Cella
- Lorenzo Gervaso
- Nicola Fazio
- Paul E Summers
- Giuseppe Petralia
- Cindy Canivet
- Barbara Bournet
- Louis Buscail
- Andrei Roman
- Loredana Balacescu
- Adrian Trifa
- Andreea Catana
- Florina Pop
- Ovidiu Balacescu
- Patrycja Przybyłowicz
- Olga Taryma-Lesniak
- Tomasz K Wojdacz
- Mireia Obón-Santacana
- Victor Moreno
1 Application
| Application ID | Title |
|---|---|
| 69033 | Modeling risk for cancer outcomes using modifiable, metabolomic and genetic factors |
Enabling scientific discoveries that improve human health