| Title: | Incorporating polygenic risk into the Leicester Risk Assessment score for 10-year risk prediction of type 2 diabetes |
| Journal: | Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome Clinical Research & Reviews |
| Published: | 29 Mar 2024 |
| Pubmed: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38608567/ |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsx.2024.102996 |
Publication 10011
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Abstract
AIMS: We evaluated whether incorporating information on ethnic background and polygenic risk enhanced the Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA) score for predicting 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes.</p>
METHODS: The sample included 202,529 UK Biobank participants aged 40-69 years. We computed the LRA score, and developed two new risk scores using training data (80% sample): LRArev, which incorporated additional information on ethnic background, and LRAprs, which incorporated polygenic risk for type 2 diabetes. We assessed discriminative and reclassification performance in a test set (20% sample). Type 2 diabetes was ascertained using primary care, hospital inpatient and death registry records.</p>
RESULTS: Over 10 years, 7,476 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The Harrell's C indexes were 0.796 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.785, 0.806), 0.802 (95% CI 0.792, 0.813), and 0.829 (95% CI 0.820, 0.839) for the LRA, LRArev and LRAprs scores, respectively. The LRAprs score significantly improved the overall reclassification compared to the LRA (net reclassification index [NRI] = 0.033, 95% CI 0.015, 0.049) and LRArev (NRI = 0.040, 95% CI 0.024, 0.055) scores.</p>
CONCLUSIONS: Polygenic risk moderately improved the performance of the existing LRA score for 10-year risk prediction of type 2 diabetes.</p>
10 Authors
- Xiaonan Liu
- Thomas J Littlejohns
- Jelena Bešević
- Fiona Bragg
- Lei Clifton
- Jennifer A Collister
- Eirini Trichia
- Laura J Gray
- Kamlesh Khunti
- David J Hunter
1 Application
| Application ID | Title |
|---|---|
| 33952 | Risk profiles for cancers; polygenic risk scores with and without non-genetic risk factors |
Enabling scientific discoveries that improve human health