Abstract
The development of an effective survival prediction tool is key for reducing colorectal cancer mortality. Here, we apply a three-stage study to devise a polygenic prognostic score (PPS) for stratifying colorectal cancer overall survival. Leveraging two cohorts of 3703 patients, we first perform a genome-wide survival association analysis to develop eight candidate PPSs. Further using an independent cohort with 470 patients, we identify the 287 variants-derived PPS (i.e., PPS287) achieving an optimal prediction performance [hazard ratio (HR) per SD = 1.99, P = 1.76 × 10−8], accompanied by additional tests in two external cohorts, with HRs per SD of 1.90 (P = 3.21 × 10−14; 543 patients) and 1.80 (P = 1.11 × 10−9; 713 patients). Notably, the detrimental impact of pathologic characteristics and genetic risk could be attenuated by a healthy lifestyle, yielding a 7.62% improvement in the 5-year overall survival rate. Therefore, our findings demonstrate the integrated contribution of pathologic characteristics, germline variants, and lifestyle exposure to the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients.</p>