| Title: | Risk factors for positive and negative COVID-19 tests: a cautious and in-depth analysis of UK biobank data |
| Journal: | International Journal of Epidemiology |
| Published: | 20 Aug 2020 |
| Pubmed: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32814959/ |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaa134 |
| URL: | https://academic.oup.com/ije/article-pdf/49/5/1454/34947017/dyaa134.pdf |
Publication 5681
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: The recent COVID-19 outbreak has generated an unprecedented public health crisis, with millions of infections and hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide. Using hospital-based or mortality data, several COVID-19 risk factors have been identified, but these may be confounded or biased.</p>
METHODS: Using SARS-CoV-2 infection test data (n = 4509 tests; 1325 positive) from Public Health England, linked to the UK Biobank study, we explored the contribution of demographic, social, health risk, medical and environmental factors to COVID-19 risk. We used multivariable and penalized logistic regression models for the risk of (i) being tested, (ii) testing positive/negative in the study population and, adopting a test negative design, (iii) the risk of testing positive within the tested population.</p>
RESULTS: In the fully adjusted model, variables independently associated with the risk of being tested for COVID-19 with odds ratio >1.05 were: male sex; Black ethnicity; social disadvantage (as measured by education, housing and income); occupation (healthcare worker, retired, unemployed); ever smoker; severely obese; comorbidities; and greater exposure to particulate matter (PM) 2.5 absorbance. Of these, only male sex, non-White ethnicity and lower educational attainment, and none of the comorbidities or health risk factors, were associated with testing positive among tested individuals.</p>
CONCLUSIONS: We adopted a careful and exhaustive approach within a large population-based cohort, which enabled us to triangulate evidence linking male sex, lower educational attainment and non-White ethnicity with the risk of COVID-19. The elucidation of the joint and independent effects of these factors is a high-priority area for further research to inform on the natural history of COVID-19.</p>
13 Keywords
- Biological Specimen Banks
- COVID-19
- COVID-19 Testing
- Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic
- Female
- Humans
- Male
- Middle Aged
- Predictive Value of Tests
- Risk Assessment
- Risk Factors
- SARS-CoV-2
- United Kingdom
9 Authors
- Marc Chadeau-Hyam
- Barbara Bodinier
- Joshua Elliott
- Matthew D Whitaker
- Ioanna Tzoulaki
- Roel Vermeulen
- Michelle Kelly-Irving
- Cyrille Delpierre
- Paul Elliott
1 Application
| Application ID | Title |
|---|---|
| 19266 | Risk factors, simple and detailed risk prediction models for cancer incidence and mortality |
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