| Title: | Large-Scale Plasma Proteomics Enhances Prediction of Liver-Related Events Among Individuals With Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study in the UK Biobank |
| Journal: | Diabetes Obesity and Metabolism |
| Published: | 23 Jul 2026 |
| Pubmed: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42494174/ |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1111/dom.71113 |
Publication 21375
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To develop a protein risk score (ProRS) for predicting liver-related events (LREs) in patients with diabetes and compare its predictive performance with the Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and an established polygenic risk score.</p>
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 13 516 individuals with prediabetes and type 2 diabetes (T2D) from the UK Biobank. Cox proportional hazards models and LASSO regression were applied to identify proteins associated with incident LREs and construct the ProRS. Predictive performance was assessed using Harrell's C-index, time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement.</p>
RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 13.5 years, 171 (1.3%) incident LREs occurred. We identified 877 proteins associated with LRE risk, primarily enriched in inflammatory signalling, extracellular matrix remodelling and complement/coagulation cascades. In the training set, we developed a 24-protein ProRS (C-index, 0.842; 95% CI 0.797-0.884) that stratified individuals into low-, medium- and high-risk groups, with 10-year cumulative incidences of LREs of 0.2%, 1.2% and 14.2%, respectively. Compared with the low-risk group, the hazard ratio for LREs was 57.1 (95% CI 31.9-102) in the high-risk group. In the internal validation set, the ProRS model (C-index, 0.876; 95% CI 0.827-0.920) accurately predicted both short- and long-term LREs and outperformed FIB-4 index (C-index, 0.733; 95% CI 0.657-0.807) and polygenic risk score (C-index, 0.636; 95% CI 0.564-0.706).</p>
CONCLUSIONS: The protein risk score demonstrated superior performance compared with the FIB-4 index and the polygenic risk score in predicting incident LREs among individuals with prediabetes and T2D. The score allows stratification of individuals according to liver-related risk, though external validation in multi-ethnic cohorts is warranted.</p>
12 Authors
- Chenhao Ye
- Ziqi Zhang
- Yi Ding
- You Yu
- Shengan Zhang
- Jiashu Pan
- Shuchang Nie
- Sumei Li
- Li Zhang
- Lili Lu
- Lei Wang
- Guang Ji
1 Application
| Application ID | Title |
|---|---|
| 221713 | Exploring the associations of lifestyle, environmental and genetic factors on metabolic diseases and cancer |
Enabling scientific discoveries that improve human health