| Title: | Prediction of incident heart failure in individuals without prior cardiovascular disease: the SCORE2-HF risk model |
| Journal: | European Heart Journal |
| Published: | 11 Mar 2026 |
| Pubmed: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41810943/ |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehag154 |
| URL: | https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/eurheartj/ehag154/67283370/ehag154.pdf |
Publication 20659
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Heart failure (HF) presents a significant and growing public health challenge. The aim of this study was to develop and validate SCORE2-HF, a model for HF risk estimation in European adults aged over 40-years without previous cardiovascular disease.</p>
METHODS: Using data from 25 prospective cohorts (14 countries, 611 778 individuals, 21 818 incident HF events) the sex-specific, competing risk-adjusted SCORE2-HF models were derived including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, body mass-index (BMI), estimated glomerular filtration rate, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), including age at diagnosis and glycated haemoglobin. Using Europe-wide statistics from the World Health Organization and linked health records from five countries (>36 million individuals, 515 466 incident HF events) models were recalibrated to contemporary 10-year and 30-year HF incidence in four European risk regions. SCORE2-HF was validated using data from three further cohorts (three countries; 1 336 824 participants; 36 841 incident HF-events).</p>
RESULTS: In the three external validation cohorts, C-indices (95% confidence interval) were 0.827 (0.824-0.829), 0.839 (0.827-0.850) and 0.874 (0.863-0.884). SCORE2-HF risks varied importantly by individual's risk factors, and risk region. For example, in the low-risk region, the average 10-year risk for 70-year-old individuals with zero versus four adverse risk factors (smoking, T2DM, hypertension and BMI >30 kg/m2), was 8% versus 24% in men and 6% versus 20% in women. By contrast, in the very high-risk region, average SCORE2-HF risk with four adverse risk factors was 59% in 70-year-old men or women.</p>
CONCLUSIONS: SCORE2-HF - a model derived, recalibrated and validated to estimate 10-year and 30-year risk of incident HF across European countries - may enhance the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing HF.</p>
72 Authors
- Stephen Kaptoge
- Spencer J Keene
- Tessa Reitsma
- Wen Shi
- Jennifer S Lees
- Laura Lõo
- Mari Nordbø Gynnild
- Chimweta Chilala
- Scott Ritchie
- Sarah Spackman
- Gianluigi Saverese
- Salil Deo
- Xavier Rossello
- Bin Zhou
- Barry R Davis
- Elizabeth L M Barr
- Jarett Berry
- Hermann Brenner
- Edoardo Casiglia
- Kevin Damman
- Lori B Daniels
- James de Lemos
- Chiara Donfrancesco
- Marcus Dörr
- James S Floyd
- Richard Gillum
- Dominique Hange
- J Wouter Jukema
- Stefan Kiechl
- Jorge R Kizer
- Anna Kucharska-Newton
- Daniel Levy
- Dianna J Magliano
- Kunihiro Matsushita
- Kirsten Mehlig
- Peter M Nilsson
- Dorothea Nitsch
- Børge G Nordestgaard
- Michael H Olsen
- Luigi Palmieri
- Bruce M Psaty
- Hee-Choon Shin
- Lara Simpson
- Johan Sundström
- Jozine M Ter Maaten
- Valérie Tikhonoff
- Stella Trompet
- Anne Tybjærg-Hansen
- Henry Völzke
- Kristian Wachtell
- Peter Willeit
- Ruijie Xie
- Shuyue Yang
- Gregory Y H Lip
- Håvard Dalen
- Juan J Carrero
- Majid Ezzati
- Maryam Kavousi
- John William McEvoy
- Massimo Piepoli
- Kamlesh Khunti
- Stefan Koudstaal
- John Danesh
- Angela Wood
- Frank L J Visseren
- Nathalie Conrad
- Taavi Tillmann
- Łukasz Kuźma
- Charlotte Andersson
- Steven H J Hageman
- Emanuele Di Angelantonio
- Lisa Pennells
1 Application
| Application ID | Title |
|---|---|
| 608471 | Distributions, predictors, causes and consequences of diseases, traits and risk factors. |
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