Abstract
Background and Objectives: The study aimed to evaluate the performance of a predictive model using the kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in diabetes and to investigate the impact of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) as estimated by different equations on the performance of the KFRE model in diabetes.</p>
Design Setting Participants and Measurements: A total of 18,928 individuals with diabetes without ESRD history from the UK Biobank, a prospective cohort study initiated in 2006-2010, were included in this study. Modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD), chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI) or revised Lund-Malmö (r-LM) were used to estimate GFR in the KFRE model. Cox proportional risk regression was used to determine the correlation coefficients between each variable and ESRD risk in each model. Harrell's C-index and net reclassification improvement (NRI) index were used to evaluate the differentiation of the models. Analysis was repeated in subgroups based on albuminuria and hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) levels.</p>
Results: Overall, 132 of the 18,928 patients developed ESRD after a median follow-up of 12 years. The Harrell's C-index based on GFR estimated by CKD-EPI, MDRD, and r-LM was 0.914 (95% CI = 0.8812-0.9459), 0.908 (95% CI = 0.8727-0.9423), and 0.917 (95% CI = 0.8837-0.9496), respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed that in diabetic patients with macroalbuminuria, the KFRE model based on GFR estimated by r-LM (KFRE-eGFRr-LM) had better differentiation compared to the KFRE model based on GFR estimated by CKD-EPI (KFRE-eGFRCKD-EPI) with a KFRE-eGFRr-LM C-index of 0.846 (95% CI = 0.797-0.894, p = 0.025), while the KFRE model based on GFR estimated by MDRD (KFRE-eGFRMDRD) showed no significant difference compared to the KFRE-eGFRCKD-EPI (KFRE-eGFRMDRD C-index of 0.837, 95% CI = 0.785-0.889, p = 0.765). Subgroup analysis of poor glycemic control (HbA1c >8.5%) demonstrated the same trend. Compared to KFRE-eGFRCKD-EPI (C-index = 0.925, 95% CI = 0.874-0.976), KFRE-eGFRr-LM had a C-index of 0.935 (95% CI = 0.888-0.982, p = 0.071), and KFRE-eGFRMDRD had a C-index of 0.925 (95% CI = 0.874-0.976, p = 0.498).</p>
Conclusions: In adults with diabetes, the r-LM equation performs better than the CKD-EPI and MDRD equations in the KFRE model for predicting ESRD, especially for those with macroalbuminuria and poor glycemic control (HbA1c >8.5%).</p>